Modelling to Ceratitis capitata(Diptera: the pritidae) for Ecuador
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26423/rctu.v2i3.54Keywords:
fruit fly, ecoclimatic index, potential distribution Climexmodel,, climate change scenarioAbstract
This study determined the potential distribution of C. capitata under current climate conditions and a climate change scenario (A1B-2030) for the Ecuador using the CLIMEX model version 3. The model used physiological parameters of C. capitata and global meteorological data, to build an Ecoclimatic Index (EI), which described the very favorable areas (EI > 30), less favorable areas (EI < 30) and less favorable areas (EI = 0) for the distribution of C. capitata throughout the year. It was estimated that the percentage of very favorable areas (EI > 30) of C. capitata is 47.73% in current climate conditions and 33.3% in the scenario (A1B-2030). In addition, it was estimated that the percentage of less favorable areas (EI < 30) is 47.61% in current climate conditions and 62.17% in the scenario (A1B-2030). The areas with zero probability for establishment of C. capitata is 4.65% for current climate conditions and 4.80% for the scenario (A1B-2030).
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